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(Updated 12:45 pm) NFL Week 4 Sunday - The 1:00 pm Games to Watch

PLUS: Updated Inactive List, Predictions, Betting Odds and Top Picks

Author

Kevin Draft
October 01, 2023

Game Day Insights
Read Time: 5 mins

NFL Week 4 Sunday 1pm Games are About to Kick Off

SUNDAY, SEPT. 24

The first month of the 2023 regular season is nearly in the books with Week 4 underway.

An NFC North showdown between the Lions and Packers got us started on Thursday night and now we have a jam-packed slate today and, of course, our primetime matchup on Monday night between the Seahawks and Giants.

But the big question on everyone’s mind?

Will Taylor show up to the Chiefs vs Jets Game tonight.

It’s almost game time. Let’s get it!


  1. 1:00pm Matchups

  2. Our Take

  3. Betting Nuggets

  4. Injury Report

  5. Inactive List (updated as of 12:45 pm ET)

Dolphins (3-0) at Bills (2-1)


Our Take

Miami, after a dominant win over Denver, is unexpectedly an underdog by 2.5 points. They've scored an impressive 70 points in one game, outpacing 18 other teams' three-game totals. However, they now face the Bills, a team potentially capable of matching them. Buffalo's defense has been outstanding, achieving the highest QB pressure percentage (50.2%) with a low blitz rate (15.7%). This defense, along with their league-leading seven interceptions, gives their offense a solid platform. Still, Miami's team speed, including Tua's performance, might prove too much for Buffalo.

Betting Nuggets

  • Tua Tagovailoa is 10-5-1 ATS in his career as an underdog (8-8 outright).

  • Tua Tagovailoa is 8-3-1 ATS in division games (4-1-1 ATS on road).

  • The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in division games under Mike McDaniel.

  • Josh Allen is 44-30-5 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • The Dolphins have covered four straight road games.

Injury Report

DOLPHINS

BILLS

Vikings (0-3) vs. Panthers (0-3)

Our Take

Last year, Minnesota had an impressive 11-0 record in close games but lost their first playoff match by a touchdown, showing the unpredictability of football. Now, in 2023, they have suffered three tight losses, causing frustration. However, in Week 4, they face another winless team. Given the current state of both teams, Minnesota, with its superior offense, appears to be the stronger side. Ideally, they'd aim for a win with a clear margin to avoid another one-score game.

Betting Nuggets

  • The Panthers have won three straight games as home underdogs (3-1 ATS/SU last season).

  • The Vikings are 10-6-1 ATS as road favorites in Kirk Cousins' starts.

  • The Vikings are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games.

Injury Report

VIKINGS

PANTHERS

Broncos (0-3) vs Bears (0-3)

Our Take

The Broncos have had a tough run, first facing a dominant team and then being upset by an emerging competitor. Chicago, however, doesn't quite match either description. Even though Denver is struggling, Chicago has yet to prove itself. While Russell Wilson's team has shown some good moments in their games, the Bears have consistently struggled to move the ball, with only a few productive drives all season.

Betting Nuggets

  • The Bears are 5-14-1 ATS under Matt Eberflus, the worst in the NFL over the last two seasons. Justin Fields is 8-19-1 ATS in his career.

  • The Broncos are 1-8 ATS as favorites since the start of last season and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in that role.

  • Both teams are 0-3 ATS this season.

Injury Report

BRONCOS

BEARS

Ravens (2-1) vs. Browns (2-1)

Our Take

The Browns seem favored to win given their home advantage, strong defense, and the Ravens' injury woes. However, trust in Cleveland is hesitant, especially in a close contest. The Ravens are seeing improvement regarding injuries, and their recent overtime loss might have been the push they needed to refine their gameplay.

Betting Nuggets

  • Lamar Jackson is 20-9-2 ATS on the road in his career.

  • Since 2019, the Ravens are 15-6-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, including 13-3-2 ATS in Lamar Jackson starts.

  • The Browns are 11-19 ATS as a favorite under Kevin Stefanski.

  • The Browns are 6-14 ATS in division games under Kevin Stefanski.

Injury Report

RAVENS

BROWNS

Steelers (2-1) vs Texans (1-2)

Our Take

The Texans showed promise last week with C.J. Stroud's impressive performance against the Jags. However, this weekend might be a different story. Mike Tomlin, with his excellent 24-4 record against rookie QBs, poses a significant challenge for Stroud. While the young QB handled the Jags well, facing the Steelers' robust defense will be his toughest test yet. Despite uncertainties around Pittsburgh's offense, their strong defense under Tomlin will likely be the deciding factor in the game.

Betting Nuggets

  • The Steelers have covered five straight road games. They have also covered five straight conference games.

  • The Steelers are 29-39-2 ATS as road favorites under Mike Tomlin (.426).

  • The Texans are 0-9-1 outright in their last 10 home games (4-6 ATS). They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.

Injury Report

STEELERS

TEXANS

Rams (1-2) vs. Colts (2-1)

Our Take

Anthony Richardson's return to practice is promising for the Colts, especially with Zack Moss's recent performance. The Colts are gaining momentum, and even if Minshew starts, they pose a threat. On the other hand, the Rams have potential with Matthew Stafford, but their success hinges on his protection. The influence of defensive players like Aaron Donald and DeForest Buckner will be crucial. This matchup is unpredictable, but the home team likely has the edge, regardless of Richardson's status.

Betting Nuggets

  • The Colts are 1-6 ATS as favorites since the start of last season.

  • Rams road games are 7-1-1 to the under since the start of last season.

  • The Rams are 4-1 ATS on short rest since 2021.

Injury Report

RAMS

COLTS

Bucs (2-1) vs. Saints (2-1)

Our Take

The Saints' defensive stats could be influenced by their relatively easy past opponents, and they might find challenges against Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, following the Eagles' recent performance. However, with a week of preparation and Alvin Kamara's return, the Saints' offense, led by Jameis Winston, is expected to improve. Additionally, Derek Carr, despite a previous injury, will play

Betting Nuggets

  • The Saints have covered seven of the last eight meetings since 2019.

  • All three Saints games have gone under the total this season. The Saints are 0-2-1 ATS.

  • The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.

  • The Saints are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.

Injury Report

BUCCANEERS

SAINTS

Commanders (2-1) vs. Eagles (3-0)

Our Take

Philadelphia, with a 3-0 start, has dominated despite not showcasing their best offense. Their strong run game, highlighted by D'Andre Swift, poses a challenge for defenses. The Commanders, after a poor defensive performance against the Bills, will have a tough time, even though they've previously defeated Jalen Hurts. The game's outcome will hinge on the battle in the trenches, and Philadelphia's front line seems more reliable.

Betting Nuggets

  • Washington is 10-15-2 ATS after a loss under Ron Rivera, with unders going 18-9.

  • The Commanders are 3-6-2 ATS as at least seven-point underdogs under Ron Rivera. All three covers were outright wins.

Injury Report

COMMANDERS

EAGLES

Bengals (1-2) vs. Titans (1-2)

Our Take

Both the Bengals and Titans are struggling offensively, with their stats nearly neck-and-neck in various categories. The two teams even concede the same number of points per game. Given this close match-up, the deciding factor leans towards the Bengals due to their star quarterback, Joe Burrow, and their impressive receivers, even if Burrow isn't at peak form.

Betting Nuggets

  • The Titans are 25-15-1 ATS as underdogs under Vrabel, including 21-20 outright. They are 10-5 outright and ATS as home underdogs under Vrabel.

  • The Bengals are 13-5 ATS on the road since 2021, tied with the Cardinals for best in the NFL in that span.

  • The Bengals have covered five straight meetings since 2011.

  • The Titans are 8-1 ATS in October since 2021.

Injury Report

BENGALS

TITANS

Updated as of 12:45 pm ET

Ravens

  • Rashod Bateman (WR)

  • Odell Beckham Jr. (WR)

  • Marlon Humphrey (CB)

  • Odafe Oweh (DE)

  • Marcus Williams (S)

  • David Ojabo (DE)

  • Josh Johnson (QB)

Browns

  • Deshaun Watson (QB)

  • Isaiah McGuire (DT)

  • Kahlef Hailassie (CB)

  • Siaki Ika (DT)

  • Zaire Mitchell-Paden (TE)

  • Ronnie Hickman Jr. (S)

Steelers

  • Gunner Olszewski (WR)

  • Breiden Fehoko (DT)

  • Mason Rudolph (QB)

  • Godwin Igwebuike (RB)

Texans

  • Denzel Perryman (LB)

  • Tavierre Thomas (CB)

  • Dare Ogunbowale (RB)

  • Case Keenum (QB)

Vikings

  • Lewis Cine (S)

  • Jaren Hall (QB)

  • Khyiris Tonga (DT)

  • Nick Muse (TE)

Panthers

  • Jonathan Mingo (WR)

  • Xavier Woods (S)

  • Deion Jones (LB)

  • Sam Webb (CB)

  • Raheem Blackshear (RB)

Bengals

  • Irv Smith Jr. (TE)

  • Akeem Davis-Gaither (LB)

  • Charlie Jones (WR)

  • DJ Ivey (CB)

  • Devin Harper (LB)

Titans

  • Luke Gifford (LB)

  • Elijah Molden (CB)

  • Treylon Burks (WR)

  • Will Levis (QB)

Commanders

  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB)

  • Curtis Hodges (TE)

  • KJ Henry (EDGE)

  • Mitchell Tinsley (WR)

Eagles

  • Sydney Brown (S)

  • Justin Evans (S)

  • Quez Watkins (WR)

  • Rashaad Penny (RB)

  • Moro Ojomo (DT)

  • Tanner McKee (QB)

Bucs

  • Jamel Dean (CB)

  • SirVocea Dennis (LB)

  • Calijah Kancey (DT)

  • Derrek Pitts (CB)

  • Markees Watts (DE)

  • Payne Durham (TE)

Saints

  • Jordan Howden (S)

  • Paulson Adebo (CB)

  • Foster Moreau (TE)

  • Jake Luton (QB)

  • A.T. Perry (WR)

  • Kyle Phillips (DT)

Rams

  • Zach Evans (RB)

  • Earnest Brown IV (DE)

Colts

  • Sam Ehlinger (QB)

  • Isaiah Land (LB)

  • Cameron McGrone (LB)

  • Will Mallory (TE)

  • Darrell Baker Jr. (CB)

Dolphins

  • Jaelan Phillips (DE)

  • DeShon Elliott (S)

  • Eli Apple (CB)

  • Skylar Thompson (QB)

  • Tyler Kroft (TE)

Bills

  • Jordan Poyer (S)

  • Poona Ford (DT)

  • Kaiir Elam (CB)

Broncos

  • Josey Jewell (LB)

  • Mike Purcell (DT)

  • Justin Simmons (S)

  • Frank Clark (DE)

  • Ronnie Perkins (DE)

  • JL Skinner (S)

Bears

  • Eddie Jackson (S)

  • Jaylon Johnson (CB)

  • D'Onta Foreman (RB)

  • Chase Claypool (WR)

  • Nathan Peterman (QB)